weather+forecasting



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People at home can get a good idea of what the weather is going to be from there own observations. Looking at clouds is normally an easy way of predicting the weather. If the cloud is a cumulus cloud which is a large white or gray cloud with a flat bottom and a smoothed fluffy top; the afternoon is most likely going to be warm. If the cloud grows bigger and taller it will most likely become a cumulonimbus cloud which is a tall and dark resembling an anvil, the cloud might bring thunderstorms. If you see a thin cirrus cloud which is slender cloud found high in the sky; you are probably in a cold climate. People who study weather are called meteorologists, even though it may sound like it they don’t study meteors they actually interpret info from a bunch of sources (local weather stations being a source). They use radars to find rainy places or places with snow so the forecasters can track the coarse of the weather.

Once an all-human endeavor based mainly upon changes in [|barometric pressure], current weather conditions, and sky condition, [|forecast models] are now used to determine future conditions. Human input is still required to pick the best possible forecast model to base the forecast upon, which involves pattern recognition skills, [|teleconnections], knowledge of model performance, and knowledge of model biases. The [|chaotic] nature of the atmosphere, the massive computational power required to solve the equations that describe the atmosphere, error involved in measuring the initial conditions, and an incomplete understanding of atmospheric processes mean that forecasts become less accurate as the difference in current time and the time for which the forecast is being made (the //range// of the forecast) increases. The use of ensembles and model consensus help narrow the error and pick the most likely outcome. There are a variety of end uses to weather forecasts. Weather warnings are important forecasts because they are used to protect life and property. Forecasts based on [|temperature] and [|precipitation] are important to [|agriculture], and therefore to traders within commodity markets. Temperature forecasts are used by utility companies to estimate demand over coming days. On an everyday basis, people use weather forecasts to determine what to wear on a given day. Since outdoor activities are severely curtailed by heavy [|rain], [|snow] and the [|wind chill], forecasts can be used to plan activities around these events, and to plan ahead and survive them.
 * Weather forecasting** is the application of science and technology to predict the state of the [|atmosphere] for a future time and a given location. Human beings have attempted to predict the [|weather] informally for millennia, and formally since at least the nineteenth century. Weather forecasts are made by collecting quantitative [|data] about the current state of the atmosphere and using [|scientific understanding of atmospheric processes] to project how the atmosphere will evolve.

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